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Crowder Investment Research (Crowder's Corner)

Range-bound Trading Persists

Did you notice the VIX today? The investors fear gauge moved lower approximately 11% today. The premier benchmark for of U.S. stock market volatility is back down near historical levels. This is a good indicator that investors/traders are getting complacent and and the probability of a move lower could occur over the short-term. The major benchmarks are inching their way back towards an overbought state (though not quite there) so I will be paying close attention to how the VIX reacts to what I think will be a sharp move outside of the tight range we have been trading in over the last five days.

I am currently following the S&P, more specifically SPY. If the benchmark ETF can hold support at 141 (or around there) we could be in for another leg up or at least a test of the recent highs. If SPY moves below 141 or moves upwards and fails to break recent highs I might be inclined to consider a trade. I would prefer to see the latter as this would move SPY into a short-term overbought sitiation while moving the VIX lower to most likely test recent lows. This could be a good situation for a high probability set-up.

Stay tuned for how this scenario plays out!

RSI Wilder (5) for December 11, 2006

  • SPY - 67.1 (neutral)
  • DIA - 65.7 (neutral)
  • IWM - 60.5 (neutral)
  • QQQQ - 51.6 (neutral)

Andrew Crowder, Chief Investment Strategist, www.crowderinvestments.com

Published Monday, December 11, 2006 10:10 PM by acrowder
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Comments

 

LongTermInvestor said:

Have to agree that volatility is very low - NASDAQ VXN also dropped from 17.14 to 15.54 today.  Guess the Fed really isn't going to do anything tomorrow!!!
December 11, 2006 6:28 PM
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Crowder Investment Research ...
At Crowder Investment Research, LLC (www.crowderinvestments.com) we offer our thoughts on several stock and options-based strategies that might complement your long-term investment objectives. We provide you with the trading tools necessary to produce returns that attempt to outperform the major indices on an annual basis regardless of the economic environment. Our extensive research of numerous options-based strategies has shown that uncomplicated strategies, when applied effectively, consistently provide greater gains. Read the thoughts and ideas of our Chief Options Strategist, Andrew Crowder. He will provide you with educational tools, useful technical and seasonal indicators, and a wealth of investment research (updated daily) to increase your stock and options trading knowledge.

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