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Crowder Investment Research (Crowder's Corner)

QQQQ is nearing strong overhead resistance. How long will the short-term rally last?

QQQQ is nearing the highs of late November, mid-December. This area  should prove to be a strong area of resistance. Couple strong overhead resistance with the recent move into a very overbought state and I think the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 could experience a short-term decline over the next few trading sessions.

Furthermore, the recent short-term rally has been a direct result of a few big moves in a small number of stocks, namely Apple, AAPL. Typically, when we see an indice move upwards as a result of a concentrated number of equities within the indice we usually see a short-term decline over the next few trading sessions.

As I stated yesterday, I would prefer to see the indices get on the same page and rally into an overbought, preferably very overbought state. QQQQ is already there, the question is, will the other indices catch-up. As a  trader, it can be frustrating waiting for high-odds set-ups, but as my loyal readers and subscribers of the ETF Extremes service saw since the inception of our service, patience pays. Knowing when to sit on your hands is often the most difficult aspect of trading.

OIH moved lower again today. Shorts have had an absolute field day since mid-December. However, I think the fun could be about over, at least for the short-term. The oil services ETF has reached a short-term oversold extreme and this usually signals that a short-term pop is near. I would expect to see a bounce over the next few trading sessions and I am not confident in anything other a short-term move.

Oversold/Overbought levels for January 10, 2007

  • SPY - 53.5 (neutral)
  • DIA - 56.4 (neutral)
  • IWM - 47.1 (neutral)
  • QQQQ - 81.3 (very overbought)
  • OIH - 10.9 (very oversold)

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Andrew Crowder, Chief Investment Strategist, www.crowderinvestments.com

Published Wednesday, January 10, 2007 10:36 PM by acrowder
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Crowder Investment Research ...
At Crowder Investment Research, LLC (www.crowderinvestments.com) we offer our thoughts on several stock and options-based strategies that might complement your long-term investment objectives. We provide you with the trading tools necessary to produce returns that attempt to outperform the major indices on an annual basis regardless of the economic environment. Our extensive research of numerous options-based strategies has shown that uncomplicated strategies, when applied effectively, consistently provide greater gains. Read the thoughts and ideas of our Chief Options Strategist, Andrew Crowder. He will provide you with educational tools, useful technical and seasonal indicators, and a wealth of investment research (updated daily) to increase your stock and options trading knowledge.

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