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Crowder Investment Research (Crowder's Corner)

Back into Oversold Territory

After a much needed breack from the daily grind of my commentary I am finally back. Over the course of the last week I have had a few ideas about how I am going to move forward with the newslettter. With the recent success of our ETF Extremes (up over 44% YTD) and our recent feature in the WSJ we are nearing our capacity for subscribers. If you are interested in our service now is the time to consider joining our service. At $39.95 per month ($19.95 for the semi-monthly newsletter) we are the best bargain around. Compare our performance and prices to other newsletter/ advisory services and I think you will agree. www.crowderinvestments.com  Now on to the good stuff.

The major indices took a beating today. The S&P experienced its largest one day loss since June of this year. The other major indices also experienced one day losses not seen in months. The large decline led to the major indices moving back into an oversold state which is usually a good indicator that a short-term contrarian move is right around the corner. I would prefer to see the Nasdaq 100 move into oversold territory before I even consider buying a few calls. Furthermore, I think that any rally attempts could be short-lived so I will be nimble, not looking to hold a trade for more than a few days if a trade is indeed placed.  

Did you also notice the VIX over the last few days? I mentioned a few weeks ago how the VIX was at historically low levels which, in most cases, signals a top has formed (or forming) and any further upside moves will be limited. Well, the VIX has moved over 20% since reaching its historically low level and the S&P has moved roughly 2% lower as a result.

I will be watching closely how the market reacts to the recent plunge. If the move lower continues or if rally attempts are quickly sold off we should expect to see a nice correction over the coming weeks. If the market can mange to bounce back from these levels without much of a fight then the market might stage an end of the year rally. I admittedly am leaning towards the move lower, but this should not be a surprise considering the bearsih tone of my posts as of late.

RSI Wilder (5) for November 27, 2006

  • SPY - 25.1 (oversold)
  • DIA - 22.4 (oversold)
  • IWM - 25.4 (oversold)
  • QQQQ - 34.1 (neutral)

Andrew Crowder, Chief Investment Strategist, www.crowderinvestments.com

Published Monday, November 27, 2006 10:18 PM by acrowder
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Crowder Investment Research ...
At Crowder Investment Research, LLC (www.crowderinvestments.com) we offer our thoughts on several stock and options-based strategies that might complement your long-term investment objectives. We provide you with the trading tools necessary to produce returns that attempt to outperform the major indices on an annual basis regardless of the economic environment. Our extensive research of numerous options-based strategies has shown that uncomplicated strategies, when applied effectively, consistently provide greater gains. Read the thoughts and ideas of our Chief Options Strategist, Andrew Crowder. He will provide you with educational tools, useful technical and seasonal indicators, and a wealth of investment research (updated daily) to increase your stock and options trading knowledge.

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