October 2007 - Posts

• Fedspeak and the Aftermath

  Wednesday, October 31, 2007 11:43 PM

  For those of you who don’t already know the Fed decided to lower rates by a quarter-point to 4.50%. It was the second straight reduction this year. As expected, immediately following the announcement the market experienced several violent whipsaws only to finish the trading day substantially higher Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Sitting On Hands

  Wednesday, October 31, 2007 12:28 AM

  Traders locked in a few profits today as tomorrow brings the highly anticipated Fed announcement. Expect to see price action fluctuate for a brief period following the opening bell and then settle into a tight trading range as the market moves closer to the fed release Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Seasonally Bullish

  Monday, October 29, 2007 11:37 PM

  Before I move into today’s price action and what the next few trading days look like I would like to reiterate the overly bullish seasonal conditions that the market has entered. The last three days of October and the first three trading days of November are overwhelmingly bullish Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Seasonal Phenomenon Upon Us - New “Weekend Report” Sunday!

  Saturday, October 27, 2007 1:44 AM

  As I stated yesterday, a notable seasonal phenomenon is upon us. The last three days of October and the first three trading days of November are overwhelmingly bullish. Going back over the enitre history of SPY (12 years),  not once did the aforementioned time frame finish lower Furthermore, the Stock Trader’s Almanac has the six days marked with a bull symbol Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Strong Seasonal Winds Blowing In

  Friday, October 26, 2007 12:53 AM

  With only four trading days left in October will we see the historically bullish seasonality that occurs during the last three days of October and the first three trading days of November. Going back over the entire history (12 years) of SPY (S&P) not once did the aforementioned timeframe finish lower Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Market Neutral, Condors and Diagonals

  Tuesday, October 23, 2007 11:08 PM

  The short-term bounce that I first spoke about late last week seems to have exhausted itself. The short-term bounce could continue, but the high risk/reward position of the trade seems to have faded as prices have risen.   The market still seems a bit heavy to me here Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Sell In May Revisited and Indices In A “Very Oversold” State

  Saturday, October 20, 2007 2:23 AM

  Before I delve into the options strategies we follow and how the performed during the October cycle I would like to  touch on a post that I write back in late April/early May of this year. On 5/3  I first spoke about the old Wall Street adage “Sell in May and go awaay Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• October expiration and the mid-week bias

  Tuesday, October 16, 2007 10:15 PM

  The overall market has not quite reached an oversold state and by the looks of it I am not so sure that it will. After the closing bell some of the closely watched tech giants came out with postive earnings reports which have led to a substantial push higher in futures Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Mr. Probability

  Friday, October 12, 2007 2:05 AM

  Once again Mr. Probability was on our side. As expected the market took a bit of a breather today. The market gapped up today and then traded in a tight, sideways manner before investors locked in gains at record highs and consequently pushed the market lower Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Market remains overbought

  Thursday, October 11, 2007 1:26 AM

  Not much has changed. The major benchmarks that we follow remain in an overbought situation and a short-term pullback is still anticipated. The next two days are quite bullish on a seasonal basis according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac. That being said, I am more comfortable, at least over the short-term, with the short side of the market Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Market in an overbought state once again….where to now?

  Wednesday, October 10, 2007 12:19 AM

  The market traded sideways until the much anticipated Fed Minutes were released at 2:00 EST. Once the minutes were released the market surged higher and never looked back. Now the major market benchmarks are back into an overbought to very overbought  state Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Divergence in the major benchmarks

  Tuesday, October 09, 2007 1:09 AM

  Before I get started I wanted to thank David Gaffen for quoting me the other day in the Wall Street Journal. I have been quoted several times in the journal over the past year and it is certainly thrilling and each time I see myself in print or on the internet Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• .SPY Diagonal LEAPS strategy off to a great start! Short-term pullback in sight? ETF Extremes watch…

  Sunday, October 07, 2007 3:02 PM

  The market rallied mightily today with nary a pause. Typically, the market will fade a bit, if only to fill the upside gap, but not today. The market moved steadily higher throughout the afternoon and then pulled back a tad at the close, but that was most likely a result of traders taking some money off the table ahead of the weekend Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Sitting on Headlines - Diagonal LEAPS and Iron Condor Strategies Making Strides

  Thursday, October 04, 2007 1:31 AM

  Daily Commentary As expected the market took a bit of a reprieve today. The move lower was not enough push the broad market (SPY) outside of its short-term consolidation phase. I expect this type of price action will continue ahead of the closely-watched jobs report Friday Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

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