June 2007 - Posts

• Range-bound trading continues to dominate

  Friday, June 29, 2007 9:47 PM

  It was another widely vacillating day for the market, although the end result was the same as yesterday; flat. The struggle over who controls the 50-day moving average continues to dominate the market, but for how long? The market remains in a sideways trend and by the looks of it, could for several months Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Post-Fed, Where Now?

  Thursday, June 28, 2007 10:01 PM

  As expected, Fed day price action kept in line with the recent past. The day started off range-bound, followed by a decent advance, then chopped around until the Fed release. Once 2:15 EST hit(Fed release), the market vacillated widely, but in the end the price action was mute as market closed the day flat Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Thank you Mr. Volatility!

  Wednesday, June 27, 2007 11:01 PM

  The market rallied today ahead of the FOMC policy meeting which I found to be quite surprising. Yes, the overall market was oversold, but given the market-moving tendency of Fed meetings I expected to see the market trade sideways until the big event Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• In an Oversold State

  Tuesday, June 26, 2007 11:58 PM

  The large-cap benchmarks are now in an oversold state and I expect to see a bounce over the next few trading days. However, the upcoming FOMC policy statement on Thursday at 2:15 EST could limit any upside attempt. In the recent past, the market has struggled ahead of a Fed announcement, especially after a sharp move occurred Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Great premium and nearing oversold

  Monday, June 25, 2007 9:32 PM

  The S&P tested the recent lows again today and this time the major benchmark was able to hold below the 50-day moving average. This could be key going forward as the 50-day could act as overhead resistance over the short-term. The major benchmarks that we follow are nearing an oversold state, which should give us a signal in the ETF Extremes portfolio Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Another Test Of the 50-Day and Jump in VIX Leads to Wonderful Premium Opportunities

  Saturday, June 23, 2007 12:07 AM

  Today marked the fourth time this month that the S&P (SPY) tested the 50-day moving average and bounced sharply. The question is how long will the bounce last? The 50-day MA has proved to be a very strong area of support so it will take an all out effort for the bears to sustain a move below 1500 in the S&P Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Range bound trading persists. Our condors should benefit greatly as a result.

  Thursday, June 21, 2007 10:13 PM

  Range -bound trading persists in this market and by the look of it we should expect more of the same going forward. The indices we follow are firmly situated in a neutral state. My hope was that we could see the market, more specifically the S&P, move into an overbought state Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Short-term Bears Finally Step Up

  Wednesday, June 20, 2007 11:49 PM

  As expected, the short-term bearish indicators that had trickled into the market over the past 5 trading days finally proved too much for the market to overcome. The market witnessed a steady decline throughout the day and managed to break a few key support levels Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Same news, different day

  Tuesday, June 19, 2007 11:16 PM

  Once again the market traded in a fairly narrow range so not much has changed since my post yesterday. As I stated yesterday i t would be nice to see an overbought confirmation (to go along with the other bearish signs), at least intraday, in the S&P to increase the bearish edge Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Short-term outlook remains bearish

  Monday, June 18, 2007 11:29 PM

  The short-term bearish signs continue to pile up. Last week I mentioned several short-term bearish tendencies as the market moved into post-expiration. The week after June Triple-Witching has seen the Dow lower 15 out of the last 17 years. Strong resistance overhead (1540 in SPX) Historical tendency for post-expiration weakness Now we have another to add to the list Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Another Successful Expiration! Strong Resistance Overhead Coupled With Seasonal Weakness Next Week Could Lead To A Short-Term Breather.

  Friday, June 15, 2007 10:08 PM

  Expiration week is finally over and the bulls have managed to once again push the market higher. Since the lows established in July 2006 the S&P (SPY) has been higher during expiration week 11 out of 12 times. Even with the bullish sentiment this week I still expect to see weakness over the short-term (1-5 days) Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Post Expiration Blues?

  Thursday, June 14, 2007 10:17 PM

  I hate to repeat myself, but in this case I think the information is well worth repeating. Earlier in the week I mentioned that “since the low established in July 2006 the S&P (SPY) has been higher during expiration week 10 out of 11 times. If the market lives up to its recent historical precedent I would expect to see the historically weak period of post options expiration kick in Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Week after June Triple-Witching Lower 15 out of last 17 years

  Thursday, June 14, 2007 12:07 AM

  Earlier in the week I mentioned that “since the low established in July 2006 the S&P (SPY) has been higher during expiration week 10 out of 11 times. If the market lives up to its recent historical precedent I would expect to see the historically weak period of post options expiration kick in Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Watch Out Below and Range-Bound Summer Bodes Well For Our Short Iron Condor Strategy

  Tuesday, June 12, 2007 9:26 PM

  The market continued the sell-off today and is now approaching Friday's low. I expect to see the S&P (SPY) touch 149 over the next few days which, if touched, should bring our short-term indicators into a very oversold state. If this does occur I would expect to see a bounce off of this support level although I am not so certain the market will react like it did during the last correction on February 27th Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• It feels different this time

  Monday, June 11, 2007 10:28 PM

  The market (S&P) shot higher today and then muddled around the 1510 area. Overhead resistance looks strong at the 1515-1518 area and another push to that area should make for a decent short-term fade. The late day move below 1510 could be a sign of things to come over the short-term (1-5 days) Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• What to expect during the week of options expiration and more...

  Saturday, June 09, 2007 1:29 AM

  After three days of selling the bulls decided that it was time to step back into the market. After reaching oversold territory yesterday all of the major benchmarks bounced today and are now situated firmly in a neutral state. It took a while for the market to get going today, but around 1:30 EST the bulls appeared and took back roughly half of the decline yesterday Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Back into an oversold state. Jump in VIX could make for some excellent premium plays.

  Thursday, June 07, 2007 9:19 PM

  All of the major benchmarks are now in an oversold state. The last time this situation occurred was during the February 27 correction and we all know what happened then. Given all of the indicators that I have given over the past few weeks I am not so certain that we are going to have a similar reaction this time around Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• What about a neutral based strategy now? The "Summer Doldrums" are typically the time to at least consider the notion. .

  Wednesday, June 06, 2007 9:44 PM

  Could this be the time to utilize a neutral based strategy such as an Iron Condor strategy? After a rough patch during the March and April options expiration periods, May and now the June option expiration period have turned things around. Is it a coincidence that the seasonal favorite and old Wall Street adage kicked in right around this time Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Summer Doldrums? Watch the 1530 area in the S&P.

  Tuesday, June 05, 2007 9:27 PM

  I stated yesterday that the market would most likely experience a short-term reprieve over the next few trading days and that came to fruition today. When all of our benchmarks (including Oil (OIH) and Gold (GLD)) are in an overbought state the likelihood of a sustained move to the upside is low Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Unsustainable gains ahead?

  Monday, June 04, 2007 8:53 PM

  Unsustainable gains ahead? For the third day the market traded in a fairly tight range. There seems to be tug of war around the 153.50 area of SPY. Currently the bulls have the edge, but that could change quickly. Our short-term indicators are nearing an extreme as seen below Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Short-term Reprieve Expected Over the Short-term. Introducing our New Strategy using OIH and GLD

  Saturday, June 02, 2007 12:38 AM

  Before I get to the market commentary I would like to announce a new strategy that we are initiating in our newsletter that uses the underlying OIH and GLD. The strategy, that currently does not have an official name, will be based on the same indicators used in the ETF Extremes strategy Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

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