May 2007 - Posts

• Short Post

  Thursday, May 31, 2007 9:36 PM

  No post this afternoon. I am currently working on updating the website which hopefully will not take less than a few weeks. I will try to post later tonight or possibly before the bell tomorrrow. Overbought/Oversold levels for May 31, 2007 SPY - 69.9 (neutral) DIA - 78 Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Intraday Reversal Impressive

  Wednesday, May 30, 2007 11:50 PM

  The S&P (SPY) gapped down at the open only to reverse itself immediately and rally into the closing bell. Now the S&P (SPY) is in a overbought state and is directly below what has been an area of very strong overhead resistance at $153.50 or 1530 in the SPX Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Expect a Rocky Road Over the Short-Term

  Tuesday, May 29, 2007 10:47 PM

  The trading range continues. Expect more of the same for the majority of Wednesday's trading, that is until 2:00 EST when the FOMC Minutes are released. Typically, the market is volatile immediately following the report, but the vacillation usually ends 15 minutes after the release and then a trend usually takes over until the closing bell Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• What to expect Tuesday

  Saturday, May 26, 2007 3:47 AM

  I apologize for the late post. I was sidetracked this afternoon for something that I thought would take minutes and of course it took hours. Murphy's Law I suppose. Anyway, back to the market. The market rebounded today after the sharp sell-off yesterday Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• "Sell in May and Go Away" lives up to the historical billing so far. The S&P (SPY) up a paltry 0.2% in May.

  Thursday, May 24, 2007 9:32 PM

  If you are a loyal reader you know that I have stated repeatedly over the last week or so that a short-term decline was imminent. All of the signs were there. First, the Dow and S&P had reached an overbought state going into a historically weak seasonal period: post options expiration Read More Posted by acrowder 1 Comments Go to top

• Typical Post-Expiration Weakness Coupled with Strong Overhead Resistance

  Wednesday, May 23, 2007 11:22 PM

  The S&P (SPX) continues to struggle with overhead resistance. Today marked the third straight reversal day and could be a early warning sign of things to come. The large-cap Dow (DIA) and S&P (SPY) remain in an overbought state so short-term weakness would not come as a surprise Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• The Song Remains the Same

  Tuesday, May 22, 2007 8:39 PM

  My thoughts from the last few days remains the same, "a short-term reprieve looks likely this week as market performance during post-options expiration is historically weaker than normal. Couple the seasonal tendencies with an overbought market and very strong overhead resistance and you can see why we should expect to see the market struggle over the short-term (1-5 days) Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• In the midst of historical post-expiration weakness

  Monday, May 21, 2007 11:30 PM

  The first day of the June option expiration cycle was greeted with the S&P surpassing its record close for the first time in over 7 years. The market moved sharply higher into the noon hour only to sell off sharply during the final hour of trading Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Dow is "Very Overbought" Ahead of Historical Post-Expiration Weakness

  Friday, May 18, 2007 9:50 PM

  Not much has changed since my post on Thursday. I stated yesterday that if the large-cap Dow and S&P "can somehow manage to stay in an “overbought” state or preferably moving back into a “very overbought” state tomorrow then a short-term reprieve in the Dow (DIA) looks likely during the early past of next week Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Expect to see a trading range with slight expansion as the market heads into the summer doldrums

  Friday, May 18, 2007 12:00 AM

  On 5/3 I stated "bullish seasonal tendencies (end/beginning of the month) ended today as the market officially moves into the “sell in May and go away” period". On 5/4 the S&P (SPY) opened at $150.75. Today the S&P (SPY) closed the day at $151 Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• The Dow Nearing Technical Extremes

  Wednesday, May 16, 2007 9:37 PM

  The Dow (DIA) has once again moved into "very overbought" territory" and our shorter-term proprietary indicators are nearing also nearing an extreme. I mentioned yesterday that if the bulls can sustain the positive momentum through tomorrow then we could see a short-term opportunity present itself as early as Friday Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Seasonal winds could be blowing at the back of an already favorable technical set-up

  Tuesday, May 15, 2007 9:39 PM

  Over the last ten days the S&P (SPY) has established a trading range that seems to show strong resistance at $151.50 and decent support around the $150 area. My guess is that we will see similar price action as we move closer to options expiration on Friday Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• May expiration cycle looks good for the SPX Short Iron Condor. Are the higher-beta indices telling us something?

  Tuesday, May 15, 2007 12:38 AM

  The week of option expiration is finally upon us and our SPX Short Iron Condor strategy (after a rough few months) finally looks to reap the max profit for the month. As I reported on 5/11, the seasonal edge for the strategy is here and hopefully we can take advantage of the typical range-bound period from May-October Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Summer Doldrums and the Iron Condor

  Friday, May 11, 2007 9:45 PM

  Over the last few weeks the S&P seems to have found a comfortable trading range. I expect to see much of the same as the market moves into the week of options expiration. We learned some valuable lessons last expiration period in our SPX Short Iron Condor strategy and will certainly not make the same mistake twice Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• More Selling? Range-bound? Summer Doldrums?

  Thursday, May 10, 2007 9:08 PM

  First, I would to thank Seeking Alpha, Yahoo Finance, WSJ and several foreign publications for recognizing my blog over the past few months. The response has been overwhelming. I hope I can continue to provide useful and timely information for all of you Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Will we see a "Fed Reversal"?

  Wednesday, May 09, 2007 9:35 PM

  Happy Fed day! As expected, immediately after the Fed announcement, market indecision set in and we witnessed the typical wild vacillations for roughly 15 minutes. Then, what a surprise, buyers stepped in and drove the market to another new all time high Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Another successful trade in the ETF Extremes strategy!

  Wednesday, May 09, 2007 8:23 PM

  Trade initiated May 4, 2007 Trade closed May 8, 2007 A trade was signaled in our ETF Extremes strategy on Friday (5/4). The quick rise in the S&P brought the indicators we follow into an “extreme” state. As a result, a signal was triggered in the ETF Extremes strategy Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Another successful trade in the ETF Extremes strategy!

  Tuesday, May 08, 2007 10:13 PM

  Trade initiated May 4, 2007 Trade closed May 8, 2007 A trade was signaled in our ETF Extremes strategy on Friday (5/4). The quick rise in the S&P brought the indicators we follow into an “extreme” state. As a result, a signal was triggered in the ETF Extremes strategy Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• S&P at Technical Extremes

  Monday, May 07, 2007 9:18 PM

  The short-term bearish seasonal conditions that typically occur in the S&P on the 4th and 5th trading day of May did not live up to the historical billing this year. This is why I have stated repeatedly that seasonality alone is (in almost every case) not a reason to place a trade Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• S&P in a "Very Overbought" State leading into Monday's Short-term Seasonal Bearishness

  Friday, May 04, 2007 9:19 PM

  After moving sideways for most of the day the major indices moved higher during the last few minutes of trading. This brought the S&P (SPY) into a very overbought state leading into a seasonally bearish day. Monday, the fifth trading day of the month is quite bearish as only 19 Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Short-term Bearish Seasonal Winds Blowing In.

  Thursday, May 03, 2007 9:09 PM

  Bullish seasonal tendencies (end/beginning of the month) ended today as the market officially moves into the "sell in May and go away" period. The next two trading days are historically quite bearish as the S&P has only finished higher 23.8% and 19 Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Short-term Play? Overhead Resistance Looks Formidable and Upcoming Jobs Report.

  Wednesday, May 02, 2007 10:10 PM

  The market bounced back to the recent highs established on 4/25 this morning and then began to consolidate around that area. The overhead resistance looks formidable at this juncture. Since reaching this area the S&P (SPY) has struggled to push higher and with the major benchmark once again near an overbought state it could possibly fail this time around, at least over the short-term (1-5 days) Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Dow in Overbought State Since 4/13 and the Continued Success of the ETF Extremes Strategy

  Tuesday, May 01, 2007 9:39 PM

  The Dow (DIA) extended its gains again today and is once again very close to a "very oversold" state. It has remained in an oversold state since 4/13. Furthermore, it has traded in a tight range for the last four days near the recent historical highs Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

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