April 2007 - Posts

• Short-term Correction

  Monday, April 30, 2007 9:51 PM

  First I would like to apologize for my lack of posts on Friday and moreover for my expected post on Sunday. The market traded in a fairly tight range today until around 2:00 EST, when the anticipated short-term correction occurred. Once the overbought conditions gave way the selling was fierce Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• New High's and Summer Doldrums

  Thursday, April 26, 2007 10:00 PM

  New highs, new highs, new highs. What's new? Highs. It is almost an understatement to say that the market has been relentless with the Dow (DIA) up 16 out of the last 18 trading sessions. Some of our shorter-term proprietary indicators are nearing extremes which could mean a signal as early as the beginning of next week in our ETF Extremes strategy Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• The Dow (DIA) and Trading ETF Options

  Wednesday, April 25, 2007 9:50 PM

  Wow! April is certainly keeping up with its historical precedents as the best performing month for the Dow since 1950. The Dow (DIA) opened up the month at $123.66 and is now trading for $130.62 up 5.6% for the month with three trading days left. The average gain for April is 1 Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• SPX Short Iron Condor and Short-Term Overbought

  Tuesday, April 24, 2007 9:28 PM

  The market continued to consolidate today as the major averages held steady. We should see a break out of the short-term range over the next few sessions. My guess would be to the downside, but given the strong nature of the bullish camp I would tread lightly with any short positions Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Stodgy market, Condors, and ETF Extremes

  Monday, April 23, 2007 9:39 PM

  Due to the stodgy nature of the market today we were unable to receive the $.70 premium in our SPX Short Iron Condor strategy. A decent directional move over the next day or two should allow us to receive the anticipated premium in the position that mentioned in the last weekend's April Expiration report Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Another Upside Gap!

  Friday, April 20, 2007 9:14 PM

  Another upside gap occurred today and similar to the last one it finished the day unclosed. What is so surprising about the unclosed gap today is that it came in the face of "very overbought" conditions. All of our indicators have now reached an extreme territory Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Strong Short-Term Seasonal Weakness Ahead

  Thursday, April 19, 2007 11:11 PM

  The market held steady as it enters options expiration tomorrow. Options expiration tends to display a slow and steady trend to the upside. However, the trading day following options expiration is historically very weak so if the market is able to hold up tomorrow we could get a signal in the ETF Extremes as we move into the weekend Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Short-Term Signals Reach Extremes

  Wednesday, April 18, 2007 9:14 PM

  Our Tuesday top question was quickly answered today as the S&P and Dow continued the push to new highs. The Dow has been higher 13 out of the last 14 sessions and the S&P 9 out of 10. Both have been in "very overbought" territory for several days and our shortest-term proprietary indicators have reached an extreme Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Tuesday Top?

  Tuesday, April 17, 2007 9:35 PM

  Three out of the four major indices pushed slightly higher again today. Over the last four trading days the S&P (SPX) has moved roughly forty points and all three averages have been higher approximately 3.5% on average since the beginning of April Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• SPX continues to roll. Short-term reprieve looks likely.

  Monday, April 16, 2007 9:05 PM

  Another surprising move today in face the face overbought conditions and the February highs of 1460. While our ETF Extremes continues to chug along taking advantage of extreme scenarios in the market our SPX Short Iron Condor strategy is in a bit of a pickle, (to put it mildly) Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Will the S&P see 1460 next week?

  Friday, April 13, 2007 9:35 PM

  Mr. Market was once gain able to push the major indices higher today. Three out of the four major indices are now in an overbought state and another push higher will certainly drive them in an extreme state. The market should struggle with the 1453-1455 area and certainly at the February highs of 1460 Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Will the market continue to push higher over the short-term?

  Thursday, April 12, 2007 8:42 PM

  I stated yesterday that "there seems to be decent support at the 1438-1440 area and strong resistance above at the 1450 level. I expect to see some chop in this range. Expiration week is next week which typically is flat to slightly bullish so we could see a retest of the 1450 area although I expect to see another failure at this level Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• ETF Extremes and the Iron Condor

  Wednesday, April 11, 2007 10:00 PM

  The market finally took the short-term reprieve that we expected. We were able to take advantage of the expectations mentioned over the last few posts in our ETF Extremes strategy. After the sharp rally last week our many of the indicators we follow signaled a buy alert on Monday Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• A few reasons why a short-term correction looks highly probable

  Tuesday, April 10, 2007 10:34 PM

  Not much has changed since my last post. The market trickled higher again today in the face of several short-term bearish indicators. The S&P has been higher for five straight sessions and the Dow has been higher for 8 straight sessions, a feat not seen since early 2003 Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Current Low-Volume Rally Showing Short-Term Weakness

  Monday, April 09, 2007 9:10 PM

  The S&P continued the slow and steady march upward today is currently on a 5-day winning streak. Furthermore, the last six out of seven trading days have been positive. I spoke last week about the seasonal post holiday hangover that typically occurs the trading day after Good Friday Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Extreme overbought levels often precede a short-term correction

  Thursday, April 05, 2007 11:11 PM

  The market lived up to its historical seasonal billing this week and given the current "overbought" to "very overbought" I expect to see a continuation of the seasonal trends. The trading day following Good Friday is overwhelmingly bearish and I think by the end of the trading day Monday we could see that trend come to fruition Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Short-term bearishness looms

  Wednesday, April 04, 2007 11:58 PM

  It was the typical pre-holiday trading environment today: low-volume in a tight range-bound environment. All of the major indices managed to push slightly higher which pushed them closer to a "very overbought" state. As I have mentioned over the past few posts the trading day prior to Good Friday is often bullish Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Strong Overhead Resistance while in an Overbought State

  Tuesday, April 03, 2007 10:52 PM

  After a rough few days I am finally back. I would like to thank all of you for the kind and thoughtful emails The gap higher today and the continued move higher has moved the major benchmarks into an overbought state. Furthermore, the S&P has reached a point of fairly strong overhead resistance at 1440 Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

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