February 2007 - Posts

• Market bounces, but will it last?

  Wednesday, February 28, 2007 10:17 PM

  As expected, the market bounced today. I stated yesterday how DIA was near historic short-term oversold levels which typically signals a short-term bounce. I have to admit I am somewhat hesitant to step in at this juncture. Charles Kirk ( www.thekirkreport Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• ETF Extremes looks good in this market. Could DIA bounce off of current levels?

  Tuesday, February 27, 2007 9:31 PM

  Where to begin. Wow! The correction that I had been anticipating for several months finally came all at once today and who knows if there is more to come. SPY moved to lows not seen since 11/28. Three months of gains vanished in one day, amazing. Once again, our ETF Extremes strategy proves that patience pays Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Another Successful Trade in the ETF Extremes. DIA looks like it could bounce!

  Monday, February 26, 2007 11:12 PM

  First, I would like to mention that our ETF Extremes strategy had another successful trade today. We made 6.2% on the trade. Our win ration since we initiated the strategy at the start of 2006 is over 91% (11 out of 12 trades) for a cumulative total return of 42 Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Short-term bearish signals

  Friday, February 23, 2007 9:47 PM

  As expected IWM backed-off today. I stated yesterday how the high-beta index had reached overbought levels not seen in over a year. The move lower brought the index into a neutral state. However, the other high-beta index that I mentioned yesterday, QQQQ, remains in an overbought state Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• IWM at extreme levels

  Thursday, February 22, 2007 10:41 PM

  The market started the day off strong only to move sharply lower. A reversal day looked highly probable until the last hour of the day when the bulls once again pushed the higher-beta sectors higher. IWM (Russell 2000) has now reached an overbought level not seen in quite some time Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Higher-beta sectors in an overbought state. OIH bounces.

  Wednesday, February 21, 2007 10:24 PM

  After a slow start the market managed to snap back again today. The higher-beta Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) and Russell (IWM) led the way and finished near their respective highs for the day. The move pushed QQQQ into overbought territory and IWM further into a very overbought state Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Is the Russell near a short-term top? OIH is back in oversold territory. Iron Condor Update.

  Tuesday, February 20, 2007 10:00 PM

  After a nice snap-back move today in the market, notably the Russell (IWM), moved three out of the four major market indices into an overbought to very overbought state. A few more of our other proprietary indicators suggest that a short-term reprieve (1-5 days) should be expected Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Another Successful Options Cycle - Short Iron Condor

  Friday, February 16, 2007 9:46 PM

  Today's range bound trading was typical for an option expiration. Most people associate option expiration with a widely vacillating environment and historically that can't be further from the truth. The best thing about today is that it maintained our current short-term view on the market Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Short-term bearish signals lining up

  Thursday, February 15, 2007 10:02 PM

  Volume was extremely slow today due to the upcoming market holiday. As a result the major indices traded in a fairly tight range. My guess is that volume should pick up tomorrow morning and taper off as the day progresses. I mentioned yesterday how the days surrounding President's Day overwhelmingly negative on a historical basis Read More Posted by acrowder 2 Comments Go to top

• Seasonal Bias Surrounding President's Day

  Wednesday, February 14, 2007 11:15 PM

  Immediately following Mr. Bernanke's optimistic statement on the health of the economy was released at 10:00 EST the market surged and never looked back. The rally brought the S&P and Dow back into an overbought state and the tech-heavy NASDAQ and Russell are fast approaching Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Relief bounce leads to historically low VIX

  Tuesday, February 13, 2007 11:06 PM

  I stated yesterday how the market had reached an oversold level where we typically see a bounce. A healthy relief bounce came today which brought the S&P (SPX) back to the pivotal 1444 area. The question is, will the 1444 area act as resistance or support going forward? I am leaning more towards overhead resistance at this point Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Iron Condor Update

  Monday, February 12, 2007 10:13 PM

  The major indices are once again approaching oversold territory. We still have a little room in the S&P (SPY), but not much. We are nearing an extreme oversold condition so watch SPY closely. A expect to see a short-term pop off the oversold conditions over the next couple of days Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Short Iron Condor (SPX)

  Friday, February 09, 2007 9:35 PM

  First, I would like to announce that our Short Iron Condor strategy looks like it will once again finish within our chosen range. Today we could buy back our credit spread for roughly $.25 per contract. The underlying SPX is now 32 points away from our short strike Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Support holds in S&P 500 (SPY)

  Thursday, February 08, 2007 10:19 PM

  The S&P sold off this morning until it hit what has been a strong level of support. Today was the fourth time in five days that sellers have attempted to move the major indice lower without much success. Buyers keep stepping in at roughly the 144 Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• SPY and IWM have officially moved into a "very overbought" state and the release of our New Model Portfolio

  Wednesday, February 07, 2007 9:35 PM

  The major market indices moved higher again today. The move higher led SPY to break out of the tight range that it has been in for the last three days. However, the move higher was quickly met with strong overhead resistance at approximately the 1450 level of SPX Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Range-bound trading continues

  Tuesday, February 06, 2007 9:50 PM

  I will keep it short tonight. The market experienced another day of tight, range-bound trading. We haven't seen three days like this in quite some time. There is still some room to move on the upside, but according to the indicators I follow a move higher should be minimal Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• SPX closes with second straight day of tight intraday trading. What does this mean for the market going forward?

  Monday, February 05, 2007 9:47 PM

  For the second straight day the market traded in a tight range (less than 6 points in the S&P (SPX). Over the past five years we have seen two instances where SPX performance traded in this tight of a range and each time signaled that a short-term top was near Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Upside looks minimal over the short-term

  Friday, February 02, 2007 9:44 PM

  The market traded in a tight range today. Price action like todays is often the early sign of a quick short-term decline. Historically, when the market moves to a new high while trading in a tight sideways manner the market is typically lower over the short-term (1-5 days) Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Back in an Overbought State

  Thursday, February 01, 2007 10:33 PM

  Another push higher today moved the market (other than the NASDAQ 100 - QQQQ) into overbought territory. Typically, when we reach this type of extreme we know that the market struggles to move much higher over the short-term (1-5 days). I would feel more confident about a short-term decline if the market gapped higher or simply just moved into a very overbought state Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

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