January 2007 - Posts

• Post Fed-Reversal? Where do we go from here?

  Wednesday, January 31, 2007 10:41 PM

  As expected the market finally broke out of the tight range that it had been trading in during the last couple of days. However, the typical whipsaw effect that we see following a policy statement did not occur today as the market advanced steadily into the close Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Fed Ahead

  Tuesday, January 30, 2007 9:50 PM

  As expected the market traded in a tight range today. The price action over the last few days is typical ahead of a fed policy statement. We should expect to see volatility pick up tomorrow shortly after the announcement at 2:15 EST. Going forward I expect to see the market continue to struggle with overhead resistance Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Typical sideways action ahead of Fed

  Monday, January 29, 2007 10:20 PM

  After one of the most volatile trading weeks in recent past the S&P carved out a tight range today. This type of price action has been typical ahead of Fed meetings. Over the past year or so, the average intraday range has been roughly 0.5% from the previous day's close Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Are the signs pointing towards an intermediate-term decline?

  Saturday, January 27, 2007 12:14 AM

  The major benchmarks finished slightly lower today after an intraday bounce off of oversold levels. Since the rally that began back in July (and typical in uptrending markets) oversold readings have been good buying opportunities, particularly the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• The Answer - False Breakout!

  Thursday, January 25, 2007 9:46 PM

  The answer to yesterday's post, "False Breakout, or Continued Upside Momentum" became quite obvious today. The bears came in at the opening bell with a heavy hand which ultimately resulted in the largest decline for the major benchmarks in over two months Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• False Breakout or Continued Upside Momentum?

  Wednesday, January 24, 2007 10:32 PM

  We received the expected short-term bounce in QQQQ today and that brought the rest of the market up with it. The bounce in the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 helped SPY breach strong overhead resistance levels which led to new highs in the broad market index. I did expect the QQQQ to move a little lower as I thought we could test "very oversold" levels before buyers decided to show some conviction Read More Posted by acrowder 1 Comments Go to top

• OIH determines the fate of the market

  Tuesday, January 23, 2007 10:17 PM

  OIH ultimately decided the performance of the market today. Most of the major indices looked good today as we moved into afternoon trading but as soon as oil spiked higher the major indices decided it was time to take a few profits off the table. Many of the market gurus are predicting a major move in oil this year Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Post Options Expiration Blues Strikes Again, NEW ETF Advantage

  Monday, January 22, 2007 10:48 PM

  The trading day following options expiration is typically bearish and today was no different. The decline brought the Nasdaq 100, QQQQ, into oversold territory for the first time in a month. Typically we see at east a short-term bounce off of the oversold levels although I think the market could move a bit lower, possibly into a very oversold state intraday before we get a short-term move to the upside Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Post-Expiration Weakness and the Official Launch of the ETF Advantage

  Friday, January 19, 2007 10:51 PM

  Seasonal weakness is upon us as the day following options expiration is historically bearish. Over the course of the last ten years Wednesday is the only positive day during the post-expiration period while Thursday is historically the weakest day of post-expiration week Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Short Iron Condor

  Thursday, January 18, 2007 9:41 PM

  The recent overbought conditions finally caught up with the market with the most overbought indices (QQQQ) taking the biggest hit. My thought is that the decline today could potentially lead to more losses over the short-term. I expect to see the major indices move into oversold territory before the bulls decide to test the waters Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Sideways Trading Persists

  Wednesday, January 17, 2007 10:15 PM

  Another sideways trading day for the market. My bias still remains with the bearish camp over the short-term. Given all of the examples I have cited over the past few days the market still seems like it wants to push lower, but options expiration could be the wild card that is keeping it afloat Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Could January's Option Expiration Prove Pivotal?

  Tuesday, January 16, 2007 10:42 PM

  I hope all of you had a wonderful extended weekend! The holiday shortened week began with a rather choppy, low volume trading day. Don't worry, options expiration promises to bring the market a few surprises. As more traders make it back to their respective desks tomorrow we should begin to see the tight-range seen today expand Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Overbought!!!

  Friday, January 12, 2007 8:56 PM

  All of the major indices moved into overbought territory today. The upcoming shortened holiday week, which is also options expiration, should be quite interesting given the the recent rally into strong overhead resistance and the current overbought levels Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Are we witnessing a short-term top?

  Thursday, January 11, 2007 9:37 PM

  The markets rallied higher again today mostly due to plummeting oil prices. As I have stated over the last few days, I would prefer to see the indices get on the same page and rally into an overbought, preferably very overbought state. Today's rally caused the scenario that I have been waiting for to occur, almost Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• QQQQ is nearing strong overhead resistance. How long will the short-term rally last?

  Wednesday, January 10, 2007 10:36 PM

  QQQQ is nearing the highs of late November, mid-December. This area should prove to be a strong area of resistance. Couple strong overhead resistance with the recent move into a very overbought state and I think the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 could experience a short-term decline over the next few trading sessions Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Will the market reach an overbought state?

  Tuesday, January 09, 2007 9:33 PM

  The higher-beta sectors were notably higher today while the lower beta SPY and DIA held steady. QQQQ is now in an overbought state. As I stated yesterday, if the major indices can somehow manage to get on the same page and rally into an overbought, preferably very overbought state then we could see the bears rear their ugly heads Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Is a correction around the corner?

  Monday, January 08, 2007 11:12 PM

  The first full week of the New Year began with an intrday move into oversold territory in the S&P 500 (SPY) and the Dow (DIA). The move into oversold levels occurred early in the trading day and once the levels were reached buyers seized another opportunity to push the market higher Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Keep a close eye on how the market reacts during the next few trading days

  Friday, January 05, 2007 10:13 PM

  The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) was in an overbought state coming into the final day of the holiday shortened week. Recently this type of condition has signaled that a short-term reprieve was imminent. Today's trading lived up to the recent trend. The market sold-off, particularly in the lower-beta sectors (DIA and SPY) Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Living Up to Its Historical Billing

  Thursday, January 04, 2007 11:03 PM

  Trading off of seasonal tendencies has been extremely challenging over the past few months. However, today, the 2nd trading day of year and consistently the most positive trading day of the year lived up to its historical billing. The tech heavy Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) led the way today and almost all of the other sectors had problems keeping up Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Onward and Upward!

  Wednesday, January 03, 2007 10:27 PM

  I would like to welcome everyone back to the blog! I hope all of you had a wonderful New Year. Last year was a monumental year for Crowder Investment Research. The goal when we started the newsletter in 2006 was to teach and present sound investment techniques and strategies to our subscribers with an emphasis on research, patience, and effective capital preservation techniques Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

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