December 2006 - Posts

• Seasonality should begin to take over tomorrow

  Friday, December 22, 2006 12:56 AM

  The higher-beta Russell and Nasdaq 100 have once again reached oversold territory and conveniently right as the year-end seasonal bullishness historically begins. That was a mouthful! QQQQ is back near an important area of support and given the strong seasonal bias that lies ahead I think buyers will step in over the next few trading days to push the market back near the recent highs Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Holiday Bull?

  Thursday, December 21, 2006 12:52 AM

  Not much to report today. The two previous posts sum up my thoughts as to where I think we are headed over the short-term. Unlike the last few months I think the seasonal tendencies will live u to its historical billing and reign supreme until the New Year passes Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Which way we do go, which way do we go

  Wednesday, December 20, 2006 12:26 AM

  The expected test of the recent lows came early this morning and once again the bulls came roaring in to lift the market off of intra day oversold levels. Even with the bounce the higher-beta indices of the Russell (IWM) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) remain in oversold to near-oversold levels, respectively Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Strong Seasonality Ahead

  Tuesday, December 19, 2006 12:43 AM

  The trading day following options expiration is typically bearish and today was no different. The market moved higher at the open only to falter a half hour into the trading day. The impact of the sell-oof was felt in the higher-beta indices that we follow, the Russell (IWM) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Bullish Holiday Season Followed by January Correction?

  Saturday, December 16, 2006 1:25 AM

  The market continued the surge higher today although most of the gains were given up as short-term overbought conditions proved too much for the bulls to overcome. The RSI readings are still quite high and a there area few other short-term indicators that are leaning towards the bearish camp Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Post-Options Expiration Blues???

  Thursday, December 14, 2006 11:58 PM

  Will the post-expiration bear rear its ugly head on Monday. Historically, the trading day following options expiration is substantially weaker than normal. Couple this with the S&P (SPY) and DOW (DIA) in a very overbought to overbought state and we could indeed expect to see weakness on Monday Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Christmas Correction or Santa Claus Rally?

  Wednesday, December 13, 2006 11:22 PM

  The market gapped up at the recent highs at the open only to give back all of the gains shortly after the opening bell. Today marks the seventh straight day of what has been a very tight trading range in the major indices, particularly the S&P (SPY) Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• S&P Continues to Bounce Off Strong Support

  Wednesday, December 13, 2006 5:55 AM

  Before I get started with the good stuff I would like to apologize for the late post. This the first, maybe second time that I have had ISP issues and hopefully it will be the last. I know many of you look forward to reading my daily post so again I apologize Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Range-bound Trading Persists

  Monday, December 11, 2006 10:10 PM

  Did you notice the VIX today? The investors fear gauge moved lower approximately 11% today. The premier benchmark for of U.S. stock market volatility is back down near historical levels. This is a good indicator that investors/traders are getting complacent and and the probability of a move lower could occur over the short-term Read More Posted by acrowder 1 Comments Go to top

• Typical Knee-Jerk Reaction

  Saturday, December 09, 2006 12:41 AM

  The Labor Department released the closely watched Nonfarm Payroll report today at 8:30 Est and showed an increase of 132,000 jobs during the month of November. Shortly after the release the market began the wildly vacillating trading day that we typically see following the monthly jobs report Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Up 47.5% YTD

  Friday, December 08, 2006 12:25 AM

  Once again, our ETF Extremes strategy proved that patience pays. The strategy has only been exposed to the market for 38 out of 236 trading days so far this year or 16.1% of all tradable days. This is an amazing statistic considering most investors think that they need to trade or be exposed to the market on a daily basis to be successful Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Tight Trading Range Leads To….

  Wednesday, December 06, 2006 11:02 PM

  The market traded in a tight range today which often occurs ahead of the closely watched Non-Farm Payrolls report due out at 8:30 Est on Friday. Economists’ are predicting the number to come in at 115k up 21k from last months report. While this one event can often create a tight range bound market ahead of the data release, I think there are a few other factors at work Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Overbought Again! Could we see a bear sighting over the next few days?

  Wednesday, December 06, 2006 1:48 AM

  I mentioned yesterday how the momentum indicator that we follow moved back into an extreme state. Couple the momentum reading with three of the major indices (the Dow, Russell and S&P) moving back into overbought territory today and you typically have a high probability for a short-term reversal Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• S&P Breaks Through Overhead Resistance. Will the Breakout Fail?

  Monday, December 04, 2006 11:36 PM

  The S&P 500 broke through a stingy level of strong overhead resistance today to close at a six year high. The move higher today was a continuation of the intra-day oversold bounce that occurred Friday and seemed to surprise quite a few traders on Wall Street Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Snowy Friday Sell Off Closes Wednesday’s Gap

  Friday, December 01, 2006 10:35 PM

  The upside gap that occurred in the S&P on 11/29 closed today as economic woes continue to linger within the market. The gap closed around 2:30 EST and bounced higher immediately following the close. I talk about the gap phenomenon quite often in the newsletter and recently in the blog Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Seasonal Bullishness Ahead. How long will it last?

  Friday, December 01, 2006 12:23 AM

  Before I get started I would like to inform you that Monday’s post was featured in the Wall Street Journal. I would like to give a special thanks to David Gaffen and especially to all of my loyal readers for the constant support ever since I began this journey at the beginning of the year Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

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