November 2006 - Posts

• Upside Gap Doesn’t Close

  Thursday, November 30, 2006 12:13 AM

  There was an upside gap today in the S&P 500 (SPY), Dow (DIA) and Russell 2000 (IWM). As soon as the opening bell sounded, buyers stepped in and never allowed sellers to close the gap in the three aforementioned indices. Historically, this does not bode well for the bulls over the short-term Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Oversold bounce. How long will it last?

  Wednesday, November 29, 2006 1:09 AM

  The major indices quickly bounced off the oversold levels that were quickly established yesterday. The bounce was somewhat expected given the recent strength and the lack of any notable corrections over the last few months. The question is, how long will the bounce last Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Back into Oversold Territory

  Monday, November 27, 2006 10:18 PM

  After a much needed breack from the daily grind of my commentary I am finally back. Over the course of the last week I have had a few ideas about how I am going to move forward with the newslettter. With the recent success of our ETF Extremes (up over 44% YTD) and our recent feature in the WSJ we are nearing our capacity for subscribers Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Could the VIX be telling us something?

  Friday, November 17, 2006 12:57 AM

  Have you been paying attention to the VIX lately? The index, often referred to as the “investor fear gauge” has reached a historical low. In most cases, a low VIX reading often means a decline is imminent. Couple the historically low reading with all of the major indices in a “very overbought” state and I think the bears could rear their ugly heads in the near future Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• How much longer will this rally continue?

  Thursday, November 16, 2006 12:17 AM

  All of the major indices are reaching multi-year highs which is causing a buzz among investors (and why not right?). The bearish indicators have been piling up for weeks now yet the bulls remain in control of the market. Fortunately, I never allow my market views, right or wrong, to interfere with the strategies I follow Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Strong Overhead Resistance Broken

  Tuesday, November 14, 2006 11:07 PM

  The S&P 500 (SPY) finally broke through the strong overhead resistance that has been in place for several weeks now. The 139 area in SPY has been rather troublesome for the bulls until today. The indice looked as though it would fall back again today once the area was tested then a massive surge in volume came through which led to a rally into the close Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Strong overhead resistance keeps the market in check

  Tuesday, November 14, 2006 12:23 AM

  I am going to keep it short tonight. Overhead resistance remains strong in the SPY. Shortly after the market opened today SPY moved sharply to the upside only to be halted by the 139 area (SPY) once again. This area ahas proved to be meddlesome for the bulls and until I see a breach and hold above this area I am still leaning towards a move lower Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• ETF Extremes

  Friday, November 10, 2006 10:51 PM

  Our ETF Extremes strategy once again proved that patience pays. The strategy has only been exposed to the market for 36 out of 218 trading days so far this year or 16.5%. This is an amazing statistic considering most people think that they constantly need to trade or be exposed to the market on a daily basis to be successful Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Are the bulls exhausted?

  Thursday, November 09, 2006 10:51 PM

  Strong overhead resistance continues to befuddle the bulls in the S&P (SPY) and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ). The bulls have attempted several times to breach the 139 area and without any success. Furthermore, today’s decline in the Nasdaq is a bit concerning going forward as the tech-heavy indice fell below an area of decent support without much of a fight from the bulls Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Rumsfeld bounce, how far will it take the market?

  Wednesday, November 08, 2006 10:04 PM

  The market moved lower at the open and hovered around that area due to the uncertainty surrounding the shift in congressional power. However, the bearish move was short-lived when Pres. Bush announced Rumsfeld resignation. The market moved rallied immediately and consolidated at the recent highs Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Expect to see some volatility over the next few days.

  Monday, November 06, 2006 11:06 PM

  The market spiked up today and never looked back. This moved all of the major indices near overbought territory once again. If you you have kept up with my daily blog you know which way I think this thing is headed over the next few weeks. Now the time has come and we shall see if all of the historical precedents hold true Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Interesting Mid-term Election Statistic

  Friday, November 03, 2006 11:00 PM

  Mid-term elections are next week and I have a few interesting stats that I would to present to all of you. The first stat is one that I have repeated numerous times over the past month. I stated on October 12th that : “Another interesting (and not often mentioned) statistic that I came across was that when the market had a strong September and October during the mid-term elections (4 year cycle) every single time the market experienced a dramatic sell-off during the middle of November Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Watch the Nasdaq 100 (NDX)!

  Thursday, November 02, 2006 11:25 PM

  We should expect to see a continuation of the short-term trading range until the mid-term elections pass. I am still watching the 1700 level of the NDX closely and I think if that falters and holds then the market could be in for some short to intermediate term trouble Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Bounce off of 1700???

  Wednesday, November 01, 2006 10:59 PM

  Certainly not the typical way to start out November. But what seasonal tendency has actually lived up to its historical billing lately? The NDX tested the 1700 level today going as low as 1702 level. The Russell 200 (IWM) is now oversold for the first time since 7/17 when the RSI Wilder (5) was 21 Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Expect much of the same

  Wednesday, November 01, 2006 2:50 PM

  It should be a rather boring week for traders. With the mid-terms elections right around the corner expect to see a short-term trading range environment over the next few days. The market is currently in the middle of a fairly strong seasonal period so I would not be surprised if we tested the recent highs Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

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