October 2006 - Posts

• Trading range until mid-term elections are over?

  Monday, October 30, 2006 11:36 PM

  First of all I wanted to remind everyone that the first issue of our new semi-monthly newsletter will be out on Wednesday November 1st. The newsletter will include our two current option strategy models plus one additional option strategy (Short Iron Condor) and our first stock-based ETF model Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• The Nasdaq and Russell having problems with overhead resistance

  Friday, October 27, 2006 11:07 PM

  Yesterday I stated:I am more interested in the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 200 at this juncture because both are reaching an area of very strong resistance. I will be watching how these two indices perform over the coming days. If we see both indices struggle a trade could be in the cards Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Extremely Overbought

  Thursday, October 26, 2006 11:18 PM

  The S&P has not seen overbought conditions this extreme in quite some time. Futhermore, the stochastics that we use are almost pegged which almost always signals a short-term reprieve. We have not seen our technicals move into this type of extreme territory in years Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Up, up and away?

  Wednesday, October 25, 2006 11:15 PM

  Today’s price action was typical for a Fed annoucement day. Sideways trading dominates the trading day until volume dries up several hours before the Fed announcement at 2:15 EST and then the market vacillates widely for a half hour after the release followed by a directional trend into the close Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Fed Meeting

  Tuesday, October 24, 2006 11:50 PM

  Trading should continue to vacillate in a tight range until the Fed report is released tomorrow afternoon so there is not much to say until that event has passed. I am working diligently on the new newsletter, particularly the new model portfolio based on EFTs (stocks only) Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• S&P’s Wild Ride

  Tuesday, October 24, 2006 12:07 AM

  Another bullish day for the market and quite possibly the top for the week. I write this for several reasons. First lets look at the short-term seasonal picture. Historically, the trading day following options expiration is bearish. October is the exception Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Sideways trading typically leads to sharp moves

  Friday, October 20, 2006 10:59 PM

  I feel like I have been so repetitive lately, but I guess that is to be expected during periods of tight range-bound markets. Options expiration was once again uneventful (as was the entire week of trading). The S&P and Dow remain in an overbought position and the VIX is back at historical lows, closing the day at 10 Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Options Expiration

  Thursday, October 19, 2006 11:34 PM

  As expected, the market continued to trade in a fairly tight range today. Typically, as the market moves closer to options expiration, the trading range gets tighter. However, post-expiration is a different story. Historically, the trading session (and the week for that matter) following options expiration is overwhelmingly bearish Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• What to expect as the market moves closer to options expiration

  Wednesday, October 18, 2006 11:24 PM

  Several key economic indicators, namely the core CPI, were reported before the bell and the S&P futures responded favorably. The S&P sat in an overbought position and the move higher pushed it further in that direction. When the market sits in an overbought position like it was immediately following the opening bell, the probability of an opening gap closing increases Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Nothing gained, Nothing lost

  Wednesday, October 18, 2006 7:32 AM

  First of all, I would like to thank David Gaffen from the Wall Street Journal for quoting and featuring our blog in Tuesday’s Blogroll Column. Since April (when I first started writing daily in the blog) the response has been overwhelming. I wanted to bring my readers an educational and worthwhile read on a daily basis and it seems as though I am moving ever closer to my original goals Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Favorite Options Strategies

  Tuesday, October 17, 2006 12:39 PM

  I absolutely despise self promoting my website Crowder Investment Research, LLC, but my hardwork and efforts have proven to be a successful tool for the independent trader/investor as well as a few hedge funds. The response has been overwhelming and I appreciate all of the kind words Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• What to expect during the week of Options Expiration

  Tuesday, October 17, 2006 12:09 AM

  As we all know the market has been advancing (almost uncontrollably) for several weeks now. I can’t remember the last time the Dow (DIA) has been in a “very overbought” state for this long. I went back over the last ten years and there has only been a few months during that timeframe where the Dow has had an overbought reading this high Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Watch the VIX! Is it telling us something?

  Saturday, October 14, 2006 1:29 AM

  Have you seen where the VIX is trading lately? If you are not familiar with the VIX here is some background info from one of our favorite sites www.investopedia.com . ”The VIX is the ticker symbol for the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index, which shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Still sitting on the sidelines?

  Thursday, October 12, 2006 10:09 PM

  Yes, I am still patiently waiting for an entry. Over the past week or so I have stated that several short-term technical and indicators have moved into bearish territory, yet our proprietary indicators are still telling us to patiently sit on our hands Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Range-bound trading continues

  Thursday, October 12, 2006 12:23 AM

  For the fifth straight day the market has traded in an extremely narrow range (less than 10 points to be exact). The index hasn’t seen a trading range this tight, for this long, in quite some time. As I have stated over the past few days, extended, low-volatility trading typically leads to sharp moves Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Tight range-bound trading (low volatility) often leads to sharp moves

  Wednesday, October 11, 2006 6:15 AM

  Since the October 4 rally the major indices have been stuck in a quagmire of tight, range-bound trading. The S&P and Dow have struggled to break through what seems to be an area of strong resistance but have failed with each attempt. Typically, this type of low volatility trading leads to a sharp move outside of the range Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Will the market experience the seasonal bearishness that typically occurs during the middle of October?

  Tuesday, October 10, 2006 7:00 AM

  Tuesday kicks off the seasonal bearishness that typically occurs during the month of October. Overall, October has been positive, but most of those gains (94% to be exact) have come during the first/last three days of the month. The middle of the month has been weaker than normal Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Approaching Short-term Seasonal Weakness

  Saturday, October 07, 2006 7:45 AM

  The market held steady again today. The move lower on a lower than expected unemployment number was rather paltry and conitues to leave the shorts frustrated. The bearish indicators keep trickling into the picture yet the market continues to perform admirably Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Back in “Very Overbought” Territory

  Wednesday, October 04, 2006 6:30 PM

  The Dow (DIA) and S&P (SPY) moved back into a “very overbought” position which, in the past, has signaled a short-term decline. Over past year, the Dow was lower 7 out of the 8 times over the short-term, when the Dow reached a “very overbought” level equivalent to where it stands today Read More Posted by acrowder 1 Comments Go to top

• Once again, the indices hold important support levels - Is a short-term move lower still in the cards?

  Tuesday, October 03, 2006 6:30 PM

  Once again the S&P held support at 1327. As I mentioned yesterday, a move higher would not be surprising given the divergence between the small and large caps and the ongoing hoopla of the Dow breaking all-time highs. Furthermore, we should not forget about the seasonal bullish tendencies that historically occur at the beginning of October Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

• Where will the divergence lead?

  Monday, October 02, 2006 7:30 PM

  As I have stated over the past week or so, it pays to be patient, and given the current market my intention is stay on the sidelines until I can clearly see a high-odds set-up. In most cases, the less you trade, the more successful you will be over the long-term. Of course, you also need a sound trading system with a disciplined approach and appropriate money management techniques. Read More Posted by acrowder 0 Comments Go to top

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The above content is provided for educational and informational purposes only, does not constitute a recommendation to enter in any securities transactions or to engage in any of the investment strategies presented in such content, and does not represent the opinions of Zecco or its employees.